A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."